In September 2010 Hank Pellissier created the following time table for the acceptance of gay marriage in America.
He calculated when same-sex weddings will achieve majority support throughout the country. For 30 states, he did this by adding 1% per year to the percentage that voted against a gay marriage ban, until the total reached 50.1%.
In the remaining states, He used either polling and/or calculated an acceptance date based on the behavior of neighboring states with a similar demographic. If a state became surrounded by either gay-marriage states, or by anti-gay marriage states, he accelerated or delayed the process by two to four years.
Justification for this equation is evident in New England, which adopted gay marriage in a daisy-chain fashion, and also in California, which was deeply impacted by Utah Mormons in Prop 8.
His results are different than those arrived at by statistician Nate Silver of the New York Times but for the most part Hanks results mirror the New York Time report from a year earlier. Pellissier believed that Silver's numbers were erroneous because he over estimated the slide towards gay-friendliness at 2% annually. You will notice that Governor Perdue's Mississippi comes in dead last.
2004 Massachusetts
2008 Connecticut
2009 Vermont, Iowa
2010 New Hampshire, Washington D.C.
2011 New Jersey
2012 Oregon, California, Maine, New York, Delaware, Washington, South Dakota
2013 Maryland, Colorado
2014 Michigan, Virginia, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, New Mexico
2015 Arizona, Alaska
2016 Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois
2017 Hawaii, Minnesota
2019 Nevada, Indiana
2020 Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Florida, Nebraska
2021 Utah
2024 North Dakota, Missouri
2025 Kansas
2028 Texas
2029 Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina
2030 Kentucky, Georgia, Oklahoma
2032 Louisiana, South Carolina
2034 Alabama, Tennessee
2035 Mississippi
Is should be noted that both Canada and Mexico have laws the provide gay marriage is legal.
Sunday, 13 May 2012
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